NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA MIN
Points 104.4 114.3
Total Points   218.7
Points From 2-Pointers 53.6 61.1
Points From 3-Pointers 34.3 36.4
Points From Free Throws 16.4 16.9
Shooting SA MIN
Field Goals Made 38.3 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 87.4 88.2
Field Goal % 43.8% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.8 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 54.6 56.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 31.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 21.7
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.6%
Ball Control SA MIN
Rebounds 48.7 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.1 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.6
Turnovers 14.4 12.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.4
Steals 6.6 8.6
Fouls 16.6 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA MIN
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 99.8 100.6
% of Possessions with SA MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 27.1%
Player Fouled 15.9% 16.2%
Turnover 14.0% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA MIN
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 22.2%