NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO MIA
Points 110.4 107.6
Total Points   218.0
Points From 2-Pointers 56.2 51.3
Points From 3-Pointers 37.5 38.9
Points From Free Throws 16.6 17.4
Shooting PHO MIA
Field Goals Made 40.6 38.6
Field Goals Attempted 82.8 87.6
Field Goal % 49.1% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 28.1 25.6
2 Pointers Attempted 48.5 52.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 35.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 16.6 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 21.3
Free Throw % 80.7% 81.9%
Ball Control PHO MIA
Rebounds 49.4 45.3
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.9
Turnovers 14.0 10.8
Blocked Shots 5.1 2.9
Steals 6.0 8.0
Fouls 16.3 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO MIA
Total Possessions 99.6
Effective Scoring Chances 95.4 99.6
% of Possessions with PHO MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 31.5%
Player Fouled 16.6% 16.4%
Turnover 14.0% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO MIA
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 21.5%