NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO LAL
Points 116.8 114.2
Total Points   231.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.2 60.5
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 35.9
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.8
Shooting PHO LAL
Field Goals Made 44.0 42.2
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 87.8
Field Goal % 48.8% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 30.6 30.2
2 Pointers Attempted 55.4 55.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.6 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.6% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 22.9
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.6%
Ball Control PHO LAL
Rebounds 50.2 45.6
Rebounds - Defensive 38.5 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.5
Turnovers 13.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.3
Steals 7.2 7.3
Fouls 17.1 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO LAL
Total Possessions 103.0
Effective Scoring Chances 101.5 100.7
% of Possessions with PHO LAL
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 28.0%
Player Fouled 14.2% 16.6%
Turnover 12.8% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO LAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 19.7%