NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO DAL
Points 113.9 114.1
Total Points   228.0
Points From 2-Pointers 57.0 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 37.6 42.7
Points From Free Throws 19.3 17.1
Shooting PHO DAL
Field Goals Made 41.0 41.4
Field Goals Attempted 85.7 89.8
Field Goal % 47.9% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 28.5 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 50.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 14.2
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 39.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 19.3 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 22.8
Free Throw % 80.9% 75.3%
Ball Control PHO DAL
Rebounds 50.9 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 11.9
Turnovers 13.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.5
Steals 6.5 6.9
Fouls 18.0 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO DAL
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 99.8 103.1
% of Possessions with PHO DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 34.0%
Player Fouled 17.4% 17.7%
Turnover 13.2% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO DAL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 23.3%