NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO TOR
Points 122.7 109.9
Total Points   232.6
Points From 2-Pointers 65.3 58.2
Points From 3-Pointers 39.5 35.1
Points From Free Throws 17.9 16.6
Shooting PHO TOR
Field Goals Made 45.8 40.8
Field Goals Attempted 87.2 91.8
Field Goal % 52.5% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 32.6 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.6 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 34.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.9 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 21.6
Free Throw % 80.9% 76.6%
Ball Control PHO TOR
Rebounds 52.0 44.7
Rebounds - Defensive 40.0 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 13.1
Turnovers 14.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 6.6 3.9
Steals 6.5 7.9
Fouls 15.8 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO TOR
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 100.7 103.9
% of Possessions with PHO TOR
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 28.9%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.4%
Turnover 13.6% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO TOR
Shot Blocked 4.4% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 24.6%