NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO HOU
Points 117.1 112.6
Total Points   229.7
Points From 2-Pointers 59.5 55.0
Points From 3-Pointers 35.4 39.4
Points From Free Throws 22.2 18.3
Shooting PHO HOU
Field Goals Made 41.6 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 83.8 93.2
Field Goal % 49.6% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.8 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.5 55.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.3 37.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 22.2 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 27.4 23.8
Free Throw % 80.9% 76.8%
Ball Control PHO HOU
Rebounds 51.7 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 40.5 33.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 14.5
Turnovers 13.7 10.5
Blocked Shots 6.0 4.0
Steals 6.4 7.9
Fouls 17.1 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO HOU
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 100.3 106.7
% of Possessions with PHO HOU
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 31.5%
Player Fouled 19.1% 16.6%
Turnover 13.3% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO HOU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 26.3%