NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC DEN
Points 114.7 111.2
Total Points   225.9
Points From 2-Pointers 62.8 58.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 36.1
Points From Free Throws 18.0 16.5
Shooting OKC DEN
Field Goals Made 42.7 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.5 89.1
Field Goal % 48.2% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.4 29.3
2 Pointers Attempted 57.8 55.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 30.7 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 18.0 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 21.3
Free Throw % 81.6% 77.5%
Ball Control OKC DEN
Rebounds 46.5 50.7
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 13.3
Turnovers 10.4 13.0
Blocked Shots 5.9 5.3
Steals 7.0 6.2
Fouls 16.1 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC DEN
Total Possessions 101.1
Effective Scoring Chances 100.7 101.4
% of Possessions with OKC DEN
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 28.4%
Player Fouled 16.5% 15.9%
Turnover 10.3% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC DEN
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 26.8%