NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC NO
Points 116.0 109.1
Total Points   225.0
Points From 2-Pointers 57.4 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 41.6 37.2
Points From Free Throws 16.9 18.1
Shooting OKC NO
Field Goals Made 42.6 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 87.0
Field Goal % 49.3% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 26.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 58.0% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.9 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 36.9 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 16.9 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 23.3
Free Throw % 81.6% 77.9%
Ball Control OKC NO
Rebounds 46.2 49.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.1 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 12.8
Turnovers 12.3 13.9
Blocked Shots 6.3 4.5
Steals 6.9 7.4
Fouls 16.1 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Okla City

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC NO
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 100.4
% of Possessions with OKC NO
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 29.1%
Player Fouled 17.1% 15.8%
Turnover 12.1% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC NO
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 25.7%