NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC SA
Points 120.5 108.4
Total Points   228.8
Points From 2-Pointers 66.4 52.7
Points From 3-Pointers 37.7 39.4
Points From Free Throws 16.3 16.3
Shooting OKC SA
Field Goals Made 45.8 39.5
Field Goals Attempted 92.2 89.6
Field Goal % 49.7% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 33.2 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 59.9 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.3 37.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 16.3 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 21.0
Free Throw % 81.6% 77.6%
Ball Control OKC SA
Rebounds 48.8 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 13.0
Turnovers 11.5 15.7
Blocked Shots 6.0 6.1
Steals 9.1 6.3
Fouls 15.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC SA
Total Possessions 104.7
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 102.0
% of Possessions with OKC SA
2 Point Attempt 51.2% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 31.3%
Player Fouled 15.0% 15.0%
Turnover 11.0% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC SA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 24.9%