NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN MIA
Points 108.8 101.9
Total Points   210.7
Points From 2-Pointers 53.7 49.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 33.7
Points From Free Throws 16.9 19.0
Shooting MIN MIA
Field Goals Made 39.6 35.8
Field Goals Attempted 81.8 83.0
Field Goal % 48.4% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 26.8 24.6
2 Pointers Attempted 47.3 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 34.4 31.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 16.9 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 23.3
Free Throw % 77.9% 81.9%
Ball Control MIN MIA
Rebounds 48.6 45.1
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.9
Turnovers 13.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.7
Steals 6.3 7.1
Fouls 17.7 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN MIA
Total Possessions 98.5
Effective Scoring Chances 95.0 96.2
% of Possessions with MIN MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 28.2%
Player Fouled 17.7% 18.0%
Turnover 13.3% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN MIA
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 20.2%