NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN MIA
Points 108.3 102.3
Total Points   210.7
Points From 2-Pointers 53.5 48.8
Points From 3-Pointers 38.4 34.6
Points From Free Throws 16.4 18.9
Shooting MIN MIA
Field Goals Made 39.6 35.9
Field Goals Attempted 82.0 83.5
Field Goal % 48.2% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 26.7 24.4
2 Pointers Attempted 47.3 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 34.7 31.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 16.4 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 23.1
Free Throw % 77.6% 81.9%
Ball Control MIN MIA
Rebounds 48.5 45.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 10.1
Turnovers 13.2 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 2.8
Steals 6.5 7.2
Fouls 17.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN MIA
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 94.9 96.6
% of Possessions with MIN MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 28.4%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.6%
Turnover 13.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN MIA
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 20.6%