NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN PHO
Points 110.8 107.0
Total Points   217.8
Points From 2-Pointers 54.5 54.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.7 33.4
Points From Free Throws 17.7 19.5
Shooting MIN PHO
Field Goals Made 40.1 38.2
Field Goals Attempted 86.6 83.0
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 53.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.8 29.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 17.7 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 24.1
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.7%
Ball Control MIN PHO
Rebounds 47.2 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 37.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 11.1
Turnovers 12.1 14.5
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.6
Steals 8.2 6.9
Fouls 18.0 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Minnesota

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN PHO
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 99.9 97.3
% of Possessions with MIN PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 26.1%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.8%
Turnover 12.0% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN PHO
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 23.7%