NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN GS
Points 113.8 109.0
Total Points   222.8
Points From 2-Pointers 55.0 53.0
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 39.6
Points From Free Throws 18.4 16.4
Shooting MIN GS
Field Goals Made 41.0 39.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.3 88.8
Field Goal % 47.5% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 27.5 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.3 53.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 13.2
3 Pointers Attempted 35.0 35.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 18.4 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 21.1
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.7%
Ball Control MIN GS
Rebounds 48.9 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 13.3
Turnovers 12.3 13.6
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.1
Steals 7.4 6.4
Fouls 16.1 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN GS
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.3 101.2
% of Possessions with MIN GS
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 30.0%
Player Fouled 18.4% 15.9%
Turnover 12.1% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN GS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 26.1%