NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR MIL
Points 107.9 119.8
Total Points   227.6
Points From 2-Pointers 57.2 61.3
Points From 3-Pointers 34.4 38.2
Points From Free Throws 16.3 20.3
Shooting POR MIL
Field Goals Made 40.1 43.4
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 84.7
Field Goal % 43.6% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 28.6 30.6
2 Pointers Attempted 58.3 49.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 62.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.3 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 26.0
Free Throw % 79.4% 78.0%
Ball Control POR MIL
Rebounds 48.1 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 34.2 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 10.2
Turnovers 11.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.4
Steals 6.3 7.1
Fouls 18.7 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR MIL
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 103.8 100.1
% of Possessions with POR MIL
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 31.4%
Player Fouled 15.9% 18.3%
Turnover 11.6% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR MIL
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 23.0%