NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR LAL
Points 108.8 120.3
Total Points   229.2
Points From 2-Pointers 58.3 68.0
Points From 3-Pointers 36.7 31.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 20.5
Shooting POR LAL
Field Goals Made 41.4 44.6
Field Goals Attempted 94.5 83.0
Field Goal % 43.8% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.2 34.0
2 Pointers Attempted 59.7 53.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 63.3%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 34.8 29.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 13.9 20.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 26.5
Free Throw % 79.4% 77.6%
Ball Control POR LAL
Rebounds 47.9 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 32.9 39.4
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 8.7
Turnovers 13.0 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.9
Steals 7.3 7.5
Fouls 19.4 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR LAL
Total Possessions 102.8
Effective Scoring Chances 104.8 98.4
% of Possessions with POR LAL
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 25.9%
Player Fouled 12.8% 18.9%
Turnover 12.7% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR LAL
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 20.9%