NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR HOU
Points 109.4 118.3
Total Points   227.8
Points From 2-Pointers 57.4 62.7
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 34.9
Points From Free Throws 19.3 20.7
Shooting POR HOU
Field Goals Made 39.6 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 88.2
Field Goal % 44.5% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 31.4
2 Pointers Attempted 56.1 53.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 19.3 20.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 27.0
Free Throw % 79.4% 76.8%
Ball Control POR HOU
Rebounds 49.9 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.3 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.6 13.1
Turnovers 13.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.8 5.6
Steals 6.5 8.2
Fouls 19.1 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR HOU
Total Possessions 102.6
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 104.1
% of Possessions with POR HOU
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 29.3%
Player Fouled 17.0% 18.6%
Turnover 13.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR HOU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 27.1%