NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR WAS
Points 116.2 117.4
Total Points   233.6
Points From 2-Pointers 66.2 66.0
Points From 3-Pointers 31.4 33.8
Points From Free Throws 18.6 17.6
Shooting POR WAS
Field Goals Made 43.6 44.3
Field Goals Attempted 92.7 88.1
Field Goal % 47.0% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 33.1 33.0
2 Pointers Attempted 61.8 54.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 60.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.9 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 18.6 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 22.9
Free Throw % 79.4% 76.8%
Ball Control POR WAS
Rebounds 52.4 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.4 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 16.0 9.9
Turnovers 13.6 13.2
Blocked Shots 5.3 5.8
Steals 7.3 7.8
Fouls 17.7 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR WAS
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 106.7 101.1
% of Possessions with POR WAS
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 28.9%
Player Fouled 16.2% 16.9%
Turnover 13.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR WAS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 21.3%