NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS HOU
Points 118.6 115.4
Total Points   234.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.3 55.8
Points From 3-Pointers 42.0 41.0
Points From Free Throws 18.3 18.6
Shooting GS HOU
Field Goals Made 43.2 41.5
Field Goals Attempted 90.2 92.7
Field Goal % 47.9% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 29.2 27.9
2 Pointers Attempted 51.7 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 38.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.3 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 24.3
Free Throw % 77.7% 76.8%
Ball Control GS HOU
Rebounds 53.7 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 40.0 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 13.8
Turnovers 13.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.3 4.5
Steals 6.0 7.2
Fouls 17.9 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS HOU
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 104.3 106.7
% of Possessions with GS HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 32.5%
Player Fouled 16.7% 17.2%
Turnover 12.5% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS HOU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 25.6%