NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WAS MIA
Points 109.0 117.6
Total Points   226.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.4 62.4
Points From 3-Pointers 37.5 35.0
Points From Free Throws 14.2 20.3
Shooting WAS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.2 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 87.7 87.9
Field Goal % 47.0% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 31.2
2 Pointers Attempted 50.3 55.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 37.4 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 14.2 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 24.8
Free Throw % 76.8% 81.9%
Ball Control WAS MIA
Rebounds 44.6 51.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 39.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.3
Turnovers 13.1 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.0
Steals 6.0 7.5
Fouls 18.3 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WAS MIA
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 102.3
% of Possessions with WAS MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 15.0% 17.8%
Turnover 12.7% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WAS MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 18.0% 23.9%