Monday Night Football: Picks for Cowboys vs. Eagles (Week 3 2021)
Odds, predictions, trends, and news for the 2021 Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
September 27, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
Jalen Hurts will try to keep Circa entries alive (Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)
The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will face off for first place in the NFC East on Monday Night Football. Both teams enter at 1-1, and the New York Giants and Washington Football Team each lost Sunday.
Dallas has played two tight games decided by field goals in the final seconds. Meanwhile, Philadelphia ranked second leaguewide in points allowed (23) after two games.
Which will win out: the Cowboys’ high-powered passing game or the Eagles’ resurgent defense?
Monday Night Football Betting Details
Point Spread: Dallas (-3.0) vs. Philadelphia (Opened at -4)
Over/Under: 51.5 points (Opened at 51.5)
Moneyline: Dallas -172; Philadelphia +154
Key Injuries: Philadelphia LT Jordan Mailata is out; Dallas WR Amari Cooper is expected to play despite a rib contusion.
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MNF Stat Projections and Player Props
Using the most similar games from the last five seasons, where the spread was approximately 3.0 points and over/under was approximately 51.5 points, here are the average offensive statistics for teams like Dallas (favorite) and Philadelphia (underdog).
Similar Team Stats, Dallas vs. Philadelphia
| Category | DAL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Comp | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Pass Att | 35.7 | 34.8 |
| Pass Yards | 259.1 | 254.0 |
| Pass TDs | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Pass INTs | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Rush Att | 26.1 | 26.3 |
| Rush Yards | 116.5 | 109.0 |
| Rush TDs | 1.1 | 0.9 |
These are based on the average teams with these spreads and totals, but they don’t reflect specific traits of Dallas or Philadelphia. For example, the Eagles may run more and pass less than a typical three-point underdog, as QB Jalen Hurts is averaging only 29 passing attempts while rushing for 72 yards per game so far this year.
Here are some of the more notable player props for this week’s matchup:
Key Player Props, MNF Week 3
| Player | Team | Category | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | Passing Yards | 299.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | Rushing Yards | 11.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Passing Yards | 245.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Rushing Yards | 54.5 |
| Ezekiel Ellliott | DAL | Rushing Yards | 62.5 |
| Ezekiel Ellliott | DAL | Receiving Yards | 16.5 |
| Miles Sanders | PHI | Rushing Yards | 59.5 |
| Miles Sanders | PHI | Receiving Yards | 18.5 |
| Devonta Smith | PHI | Receiving Yards | 54.5 |
| Devonta Smith | PHI | Receptions | 4.5 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | Receiving Yards | 70.5 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | Receptions | 5.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | Receiving Yards | 80.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | Receptions | 6.5 |
MNF Picks and Predictions
Here are our top picks for the game:
Eagles +3
Both our Decision Tree and Similar Games Models see value with the Eagles against the spread in this matchup.
As we noted in our Week 3 upset picks article, division matchups typically have lower home-field advantage than other games. The Eagles’ defense is also stout enough to make for a good underdog play.
Jalen Hurts Over Rushing Yards Total
Hurts has had at least 60 rushing yards in five of his six career starts. The only time he didn’t was his Week 17 start against Washington last year, during which he got pulled for third-stringer Nate Sudfeld.
With LT Jordan Mailata sidelined, expect Hurts to be willing to pull the ball down under pressure and also move the pocket, opening up scrambling opportunities.
Amari Cooper Under Receiving Yards Total
Cooper is playing through a rib injury and wasn’t very effective last week. He finished with only three catches and 24 yards in Dallas’ close win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Eagles have largely limited receivers so far this year. Cooper’s total is in line with our preseason projections, but in light of the matchup and his rib injury, we’ll lean toward the under.
BetIQ NFL Predictions: Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline Value
Cowboys & Eagles Betting Trends
- Eagles in the 50s: This is the highest point total in a game involving the Eagles since Week 2 of the 2019 season. Of the five games involving Philadelphia with a total of 50 or higher since 2019, four went Under the number, though the only Over was Dallas’ 37-17 win last December.
- Dallas as a Favorite: Since the start of the 2019 season, Dallas is 10-12 SU and 8-14 ATS as a betting favorite.
- Dak vs. Eagles: Prescott missed both starts against Philadelphia last year. He has made eight career starts against the Eagles and has thrown for over 290 yards only once. He has eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions in those eight matchups.
Sportsbook Promos
Here are some promotions available at various sportsbooks for MNF Week 3:
BetMGM
- Risk Free Bet up to $25 on the first TD scorer of the game
Caesars
Caesars Sportsbook Links: CO | IN | IA | MI | NJ | TN | VA | WV
- Bet on 1st TD scorer – if bet loses, get a Free Bet equal to stake up to $25 to use on live in-play.
DraftKings
- Place a same game parlay and if your bet loses, get credited back up to $25.
FanDuel
The FanDuel offer below is for for new users only.
- Cowboys vs Eagles – Bet $5, Win $150 on either the Cowboys or Eagles (ML Bet)
PointsBet
- Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts props boosts (see PointsBet for full details)