NBA Preseason Predictions 2023: Rankings, Win Totals, Standings & Playoff Odds
NBA preseason predictions for the 2023-24 season, including rankings, win totals, division standings projections, in-season tournament, and playoff/champion odds.
October 18, 2023 - by Jason Lisk
The Nuggets will be trying to defend their title (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
The 2023-24 NBA season tips off next week, so it’s time to release our preseason predictive ratings and rankings for all NBA teams.
In addition to posting the rankings and some related commentary, we’ll also provide an overview of the methods we use to rank teams. For a more details on that, you can read our post explaining how we make NBA preseason rankings.
NBA Preseason Rankings & Predictions Menu
- 2023-24 NBA Preseason Rankings
- Preseason Rankings Highlights
- Western Conference Predictions & Standings
- Eastern Conference Predictions & Standings
- In-Season Tournament Predictions
- NBA Playoff Projections
- How We Make NBA Preseason Projections
- Making NBA Futures Bets
NBA Game Predictions & Betting Picks
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2023-24 BetIQ NBA Preseason Rankings
The table below shows our 2023-24 preseason ranking for all 30 NBA teams, along with each team’s associated predictive rating for the regular season.
Rank Team 2023 Rating Last Year YOY Change Consensus Win Range Weighted Avg Wins
1 Boston Celtics 5.0 5.6 -0.6 53.9 - 54.4 54.1
2 Milwaukee Bucks 4.6 3.4 +1.2 53.0 - 53.8 53.4
3 Denver Nuggets 4.2 4.0 +0.2 51.0 - 52.0 51.7
4 Phoenix Suns 3.9 2.1 +1.8 50.8 - 52.0 51.1
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.1 4.2 -1.1 49.2 - 50.4 49.6
6 Golden State Warriors 2.6 1.8 +0.8 47.0 - 47.5 47.2
7 Philadelphia 76ers 2.6 3.9 -1.3 47.6 - 48.4 47.9
8 Los Angeles Lakers 2.4 1.1 +1.3 46.5 - 46.8 46.6
9 Los Angeles Clippers 2.0 0.6 +1.4 45.2 - 46.1 45.7
10 Memphis Grizzlies 1.8 2.8 -1.0 45.0 - 46.1 45.5
11 Sacramento Kings 1.4 1.3 +0.1 43.5 - 44.0 43.8
12 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.3 0.1 +1.2 43.6 - 44.1 43.9
13 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.2 -0.3 +1.5 43.5 - 44.4 43.8
14 New York Knicks 1.1 2.4 -1.3 44.1 - 44.3 44.2
15 New Orleans Hornets 1.1 1.3 -0.2 43.3 - 43.8 43.5
16 Dallas Mavericks 1.1 0.2 +0.9 42.7 - 44.1 43.5
17 Miami Heat 0.9 1.2 -0.3 44.1 - 44.2 44.2
18 Atlanta Hawks 0.2 0.6 -0.4 41.5 - 42.4 42.0
19 Indiana Pacers -1.4 -3.2 +1.8 37.5 - 37.8 37.6
20 Chicago Bulls -1.6 1.1 -2.7 36.8 - 37.3 37.2
21 Brooklyn Nets -1.7 1.0 -2.7 36.5 - 36.9 36.6
22 Orlando Magic -1.8 -2.6 +0.8 36.3 - 37.0 36.7
23 Utah Jazz -2.0 -1.7 -0.3 35.0 - 35.7 35.4
24 Toronto Raptors -2.2 1.5 -3.7 35.4 - 35.9 35.6
25 Houston Rockets -3.7 -7.2 +3.5 30.9 - 31.3 31.2
26 Charlotte Bobcats -4.0 -5.1 +1.1 30.5 - 31.4 31.0
27 San Antonio Spurs -4.6 -8.7 +4.1 27.8 - 29.1 28.5
28 Portland Trail Blazers -5.1 -3.2 -1.9 27.1 - 28.0 27.4
29 Detroit Pistons -5.4 -7.0 +1.6 26.6 - 27.9 27.5
30 Washington Wizards -7.0 -1.2 -5.8 23.0 - 24.0 23.7
Important Rankings Notes
Playoff Adjustments vs. Regular Season
A few years ago, we began making a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs. The ratings in the table above represent our regular-season predictive ratings. These ratings determine win odds for regular-season games, and we use them to project outcomes like regular-season win totals and division-winner odds.
Team Ratings
Team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” NBA team when playing on a neutral court.
Last Year Rating
Last Year Rating means each team’s final predictive rating from the 2022-23 season, and Change represents the difference between Last Year Rating and this year’s preseason rating.
Interpreting the Changes
Positive “Change” values mean a team is expected to improve its performance level over last year; negative values mean expected declines.
The final two columns show info about the win total projections of the component systems that we blended in order to create our ratings.
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NBA Preseason Rankings Highlights
Celtics and Bucks on Top, Again
The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks were the top two teams in our preseason rankings last year, and are also in the same spot this year. Boston was the favorite in the NBA playoffs a year ago, until they were upset by Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee battled a lot of injuries, and were knocked out earlier. But they also added Damian Lillard this year and are again one of the favorites.
The defending champion Denver Nuggets are third, and have a rating entering this year very similar to their end-of-season rating from a year ago. This is a reminder that even though the Nuggets won the title, they weren’t the clearly best team a year ago, and were in fact the third-highest rated team entering the postseason (though the top team in the West).
Large Middle Class
Last year, only six teams were projected with a power rating between +2.0 and -2.0, as we projected a large group of “have’s” and “have-nots.” But things have shifted pretty quickly. This year, half the league has a rating between +2.0 and -2.0, meaning we view half the league as being within two points of an average team at the outset.
The No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are closer in power rating to the No. 23 Utah Jazz than to the No. 3 Denver Nuggets.
Stronger and Deeper Western Conference
The top two teams, and four of the top six, are from the Eastern Conference. But nine of our top 13 teams are from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is the ninth-highest rated team in the West, but are rated just ahead of the New York Knicks, who would be the fifth-highest rated team in the East. So the battle for the last spots in the West could be quite competitive, and between potentially some of the top teams.
Notable Player Movement
Here’s a full summary of player movement for the 2023-24 season. A few notable moves this offseason include:
- Damian Lillard from Portland to Milwaukee
- Bradley Beal from Washington to Phoenix
- Chris Paul from Phoenix (via Washington) to Golden State
- Jrue Holiday from Milwaukee (via Portland) to Boston
- Fred VanVleet from Toronto to Houston
- Kristaps Porzingis from Washington to Boston
- John Collins from Atlanta to Utah
- Robert Williams from Boston to Portland
- Jordan Poole from Golden State to Washington
- Marcus Smart from Boston to Memphis
- DeAndre Ayton from Phoenix to Portland
Western Conference Predictions
Even before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from our NBA projected standings page. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of random variance in our season simulations, which re-run daily, even in the preseason.
Once the 2023-24 NBA season begins, our projected standings page will update every day based on the previous day’s results.
| Northwest | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 51.5 | 30.5 | 86.4% | 56.1% | 21.3% | 13.1% |
| Minnesota | 43.9 | 38.1 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Okla City | 43.8 | 38.2 | 59.0% | 19.1% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
| Utah | 35.6 | 46.4 | 26.1% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Portland | 27.3 | 54.7 | 6.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pacific | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 51.3 | 30.7 | 84.9% | 34.2% | 18.7% | 10.7% |
| Golden State | 47.2 | 34.8 | 73.3% | 19.9% | 9.8% | 6.1% |
| LA Lakers | 46.7 | 35.3 | 70.7% | 18.7% | 9.4% | 6.3% |
| LA Clippers | 45.6 | 36.4 | 67.8% | 16.0% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| Sacramento | 43.7 | 38.3 | 60.0% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Southwest | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 45.4 | 36.6 | 67.0% | 37.8% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| New Orleans | 43.6 | 38.4 | 58.0% | 28.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Dallas | 43.4 | 38.6 | 57.9% | 28.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Houston | 31.2 | 50.8 | 13.5% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| San Antonio | 28.4 | 53.6 | 8.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Most Likely Division Winners
Northwest: Denver (56%)
Southwest: Memphis (38%)
Pacific: Phoenix (34%)
Denver is just ahead of Phoenix in win total projections, though Denver has the higher chances of winning its division thanks to a projected easier set of opponents. In fact, four of the top five Western Conference teams by projected win total are in the Pacific Division.
Western Conference Outlook
The Western Conference has a large group of teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations, and then a small group who are seen as building for the future.
Eleven different teams have playoff odds over 50% entering the season. Five different teams are projected for between 43.4 and 43.9 wins, showing how narrow the cut line could be between getting into the playoffs without having to participate in the play-in tournament, or missing out on it altogether.
Denver and Phoenix are the clear title favorites out of the West, while Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers also have title aspirations.
Most Likely NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets
Denver didn’t make many changes from last year’s title squad. But after several years of perennial playoff appearances and not quite breaking through, they finally did so. As long as Nikola Jokic is healthy and in his prime, they should be in contention.
Denver is just ahead of Phoenix, who has made some significant changes and will now be built around Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker.
The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have legitimate title aspirations, though the Lakers will need Anthony Davis to stay healthier to realize them.
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Eastern Conference Predictions
| Atlantic | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 54.2 | 27.8 | 95.1% | 57.0% | 31.0% | 18.9% |
| Philadelphia | 48.1 | 33.9 | 83.9% | 23.3% | 10.3% | 3.8% |
| New York | 44.3 | 37.7 | 70.8% | 13.7% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
| Brooklyn | 36.6 | 45.4 | 40.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Toronto | 35.7 | 46.3 | 35.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Central | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 53.1 | 28.9 | 93.7% | 55.2% | 26.3% | 17.5% |
| Cleveland | 49.7 | 32.3 | 87.2% | 34.4% | 14.0% | 2.5% |
| Indiana | 37.7 | 44.3 | 42.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Chicago | 37.1 | 44.9 | 41.9% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Detroit | 27.5 | 54.5 | 11.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Southeast | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | NBA Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 44.2 | 37.8 | 70.3% | 43.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Atlanta | 41.9 | 40.1 | 62.9% | 34.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Orlando | 36.7 | 45.3 | 40.7% | 15.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte | 31.0 | 51.0 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Washington | 23.7 | 58.3 | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Most Likely Division Winners
Central: Milwaukee (55%)
Southeast: Miami (44%)
Atlantic: Boston (57%)
Milwaukee made a major move by acquiring Damian Lillard, a move that could have shifted the Eastern odds, as Miami was also interested in acquiring the star guard.
Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday was part of that trade, and the most integral piece to leave Milwaukee, but was immediately traded to Boston, giving them a different look at point guard with Marcus Smart gone.
Eastern Conference Outlook
Boston and Milwaukee look like the clear class of the East, with Miami lurking as well, and Cleveland and Donovan Mitchell in the mix. Philadelphia has some question marks with the James Harden situation, and after that it’s pretty wide open.
In a stark contrast to the West, we do not project the eighth-best team in the East to be above .500, or even have over 38.0 wins. Obviously, as the season plays out, some teams will perform better than expected and others will be worse, and so some team is likely to emerge as a stronger contender.
But as of the preseason, we project five teams for between 35.7 and 37.7 wins, all competing for the final playoff spots.
Most Likely NBA Champion: Boston Celtics
We have Boston narrowly ahead of Milwaukee in regular season wins as well as slightly higher in title odds. But they are very close with Milwaukee, and the two are the overall favorites to win the NBA title based on the moves they have made.
Damian Lillard gives Giannis Antetokounmpo a true second star to play with. Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, gives Boston the type of guard facilitator who can help unlock a great 1-2-3 punch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
2023-24 NBA Playoff Predictions
These are our projections for the playoff odds and advancement odds in both conferences. The “Reach Playoffs” column shows the percent of our season simulations in which each team reached the first round of the NBA playoffs (Seeds 1 to 8). If a team qualifies in the No. 7 to No. 10 spot but loses the play-in tournament, that’s counted as missing the playoffs here.
However, we do list 10 teams for each conference, so you can see which teams we think will most likely be a part of the play-in tournament.
Western Conference Playoff Projections
| Seed | Team | Reach Playoffs | Conf. Semis | Conf. Finals | NBA Finals | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver | 86% | 60% | 38% | 23% | 13% |
| 2 | Phoenix | 85% | 56% | 34% | 19% | 11% |
| 3 | Golden State | 73% | 42% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| 4 | LA Lakers | 71% | 42% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| 5 | LA Clippers | 68% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 3% |
| 6 | Memphis | 67% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| 7 | Minnesota | 61% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 8 | Sacramento | 60% | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 9 | Oklahoma City | 59% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | New Orleans | 58% | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
Eastern Conference Playoff Projections
| Seed | Team | Reach Playoffs | Conf. Semis | Conf. Finals | NBA Finals | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston | 95% | 76% | 53% | 33% | 19% |
| 2 | Milwaukee | 94% | 74% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| 3 | Cleveland | 87% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 84% | 47% | 22% | 9% | 4% |
| 5 | New York | 71% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 6 | Miami | 70% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 7 | Atlanta | 63% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 8 | Indiana | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 9 | Chicago | 42% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 10 | Brooklyn | 40% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
Round-By-Round Predictions
Based on the above projected seeding and advancement odds, here is our best guess at the actual round-by-round results for the playoffs.
Play-In Games
Oklahoma City over New Orleans (New Orleans eliminated)
Minnesota over Sacramento (Minnesota as West No. 7 seed)
Sacramento over Oklahoma City (Sacramento as West No. 8 seed, OKC eliminated)
Chicago over Brooklyn (Brooklyn eliminated)
Atlanta over Indiana (Atlanta as East No. 7 seed)
Indiana over Chicago (Indiana as East No. 8 seed, Chicago eliminated)
First Round
No. 1 Denver over No. 8 Sacramento
No. 2 Phoenix over No. 7 Minnesota
No. 3 Golden State over No. 6 Memphis
No. 4 LA Lakers over No. 5 LA Clippers
No. 1 Boston over No. 8 Indiana
No. 2 Milwaukee over No. 7 Atlanta
No. 3 Cleveland over No. 6 Miami
No. 4 Philadelphia over No. 5 NY Knicks
Conference Semifinals
No. 1 Denver over No. 4 LA Lakers
No. 2 Phoenix over No. 3 Golden State
No. 1 Boston over No. 4 Philadelphia
No. 2 Milwaukee over No. 3 Cleveland
Conference Finals
No. 1 Denver over No. 2 Phoenix
No. 1 Boston over No. 2 Milwaukee
NBA Finals
No. 1 Boston over No. 1 Denver
2023 In-Season Tournament Projections
For 2023, the NBA is introducing an In-Season Tournament to be played in November and early December. The teams in each conference have been divided into three different groups of five teams. Regular season games scheduled for Tuesdays and Fridays in November will also count toward the tournament group standings.
The first-place team from each group, plus the highest-ranked second-place finisher in each conference, will advance to the knockout rounds. The quarterfinals will be hosted by the higher-seeded teams within each conference after group play, on December 4th and 5th. The semifinals and finals will take place in Las Vegas, on December 7th and 9th.
Here are our projections for each group. We list average projected wins (out of 4 games) in the group, the odds of going 4-0 in the group, and the overall estimated odds of finishing in 1st place in the group.
Eastern Conference Group A
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | 2.5 | 14% | 32% |
| Philadelphia | 2.5 | 14% | 31% |
| Atlanta | 2.1 | 6% | 19% |
| Indiana | 1.8 | 3% | 13% |
| Detroit | 1.2 | 1% | 4% |
Eastern Conference Group B
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 2.8 | 23% | 42% |
| New York | 2.3 | 9% | 25% |
| Miami | 2.3 | 9% | 23% |
| Charlotte | 1.5 | 2% | 7% |
| Washington | 1.1 | 0% | 3% |
Eastern Conference Group C
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 2.9 | 25% | 47% |
| Chicago | 1.8 | 3% | 14% |
| Brooklyn | 1.8 | 3% | 14% |
| Orlando | 1.8 | 4% | 14% |
| Toronto | 1.7 | 3% | 12% |
Western Conference Group A
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | 2.6 | 17% | 37% |
| LA Lakers | 2.4 | 11% | 29% |
| Memphis | 2.0 | 6% | 19% |
| Utah | 1.7 | 3% | 11% |
| Portland | 1.3 | 1% | 5% |
Western Conference Group B
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 2.5 | 15% | 35% |
| LA Clippers | 2.2 | 7% | 22% |
| New Orleans | 2.0 | 6% | 20% |
| Dallas | 2.0 | 5% | 18% |
| Houston | 1.3 | 1% | 5% |
Western Conference Group C
| Team | Avg. Wins | Undefeated | Group 1st Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State | 2.3 | 11% | 28% |
| Sacramento | 2.2 | 8% | 23% |
| Minnesota | 2.2 | 8% | 23% |
| Oklahoma City | 2.1 | 7% | 21% |
| San Antonio | 1.2 | 1% | 5% |
How We Make NBA Projections
Our projections are based on our 2023-24 NBA preseason ratings. We use those ratings to simulate the full 2023-24 NBA season, including the playoffs, thousands of times.
Starting three years ago, we also introduced a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs to better account for player/minute distributions. Teams typically shorten their rotations and give more minutes to their top players in the postseason. Our projections now do a better job of adjusting for that effect.
We average the individual team outcomes in the thousands of season simulations that we run. Those averages become our official preseason projections.
Injuries and Other Roster Changes
As they do every season, injuries and trades will derail at least a few of our preseason forecasts. That’s an inevitable risk of trying to predict the distant future. However, we do incorporate variance into our season simulations to help account for those possibilities.
Projections Represent Averages
The projections are the average results from thousands of simulations. In any individual simulation (or in the real season), some teams will do significantly better or worse than our average projection. But we don’t know which teams those will be. Because of this dynamic, the preseason projections generally look a little conservative at the extreme ends.
Play-In Tournament Note
These projections include the updated playoff format that began three years ago. Teams that finish seventh through 10th in each conference battle for the final two playoff spots in a play-in tournament.
The playoff odds listed in various places in this article do not count making the play-in tournament but missing out on a first-round playoff spot as reaching the playoffs. However, getting into the first round after coming through the play-in tournament does count as reaching the playoffs.
Making NBA Futures Bets Based On These Predictions
We also want to provide some quick thoughts to the NBA bettors out there.
If you’re considering using the information here to make NBA futures bets (e.g. a preseason bet on a team’s regular-season win total, or on a team to win its division or the NBA championship), please keep a few things in mind.
Future Payout Odds and Futures Wagers
Identifying value in current NBA futures odds based on our preseason projections requires a more involved process than we cover here. We’ve previously written about how to evaluate futures odds, which you should read if you’re considering betting NBA futures.
Playoff Rotation Impacts
Our projections apply only a few rough adjustments to model the shortened rotations seen in the NBA playoffs. So, playoff advancement odds may be a relative weak spot in our model.
Historical Performance of Projections
We have yet to calculate the historical profits or losses that would have resulted from making futures bets wherever our preseason NBA projections indicated there was an edge, or for a select subset of those bets (e.g. the biggest outliers compared to betting market odds).
If our projections are very far off consensus futures odds in the NBA betting markets, we’re more likely to believe that our models are missing something (and that we should go back and adjust our team ratings) than to believe we’ve uncovered some huge betting edge that no one else realizes.
Wrapping Up
Plenty of these season projections will end up being wrong for lots of possible reasons. It’s important to understand that our goal is the overall accuracy of the system, and in particular the team ratings and projected regular-season win-loss records.
Even if the system as a whole ends up being more accurate than other NBA pundits or prediction methods, projections for any one specific team could still be far off that team’s actual results.
The value we bring to the table here is a systematic, data-driven approach that more precisely evaluates dynamics that human experts are typically bad at evaluating (e.g. the impact of schedule strength, or accounting for variance in expected team performance). Our system is driven not by subjective opinions, but by data that has demonstrated predictive value.
It isn’t perfect, but it’s far more sophisticated and objective than a lot of what’s out there.
Enjoy the 2023-24 NBA season!
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