BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 11 Spread Pick, Over/Under Pick, and 2 Player Props

Picks for Sunday November 21 include a Texans vs. Titans spread play, a totals pick on Dallas vs. Kansas City, and a prop on Cam Newton.

November 21, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Tyrod Taylor will try to upset the Titans (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

Sunday, November 21 (#3)

It’s Sunday game day for NFL Week 11, so we’re keeping the focus on NFL picks and props, plus a bonus parlay idea.

4 Picks For Today

1) Houston +10.5 (at Tennessee) — NFL Spread Pick

• Sunday 1 PM ET.
• Houston is one of four playable spread picks according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
• Houston is one of our three Upset Picks plays for Week 11.
• The Titans have averaged only 229 total yards in their last two wins, playing without RB Derrick Henry.

2) Dallas-Kansas City Under 55.5 — NFL Totals Pick

• Sunday 4:25 PM ET.
• The Kansas City/Dallas under is 1 of 3 playable O/U picks according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• The Chiefs have gone under the number in 4 of the last 5 games, averaging 13.6 points allowed.
• Dallas has gone under in 3 straight games, after going over in 4 of their first 5 games.
• Games with an O/U line of 55 or higher have gone Under 8 of 14 times this year.

3) Tyrod Taylor Under 239.5 Passing Yards — NFL Player Prop

• Sunday 1 PM ET.
• Our passing projection, based on the expected points and spread in this game, is Taylor for 218.4 yards.
• Coming off a high turnover game before the bye, Taylor is more likely to be cautious.
• The Texans’ best path to an upset is to control a Titans offense without Henry and avoid big turnovers.

Bonus Same-Game Parlay:
Houston +10.5, Taylor Under 239.5 Passing Yards, Taylor Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

• Given the Titans’ defensive front pressure, Taylor could seek to use his legs more this week, now that he is three weeks back from his injury that cost him six games.

4) Cam Newton Over 199.5 Passing Yards — NFL Player Prop 

• Sunday 1 PM ET.
• Cam Newton will make his first start of the season, after appearing in a handful of plays last week.
• Our passing projection model, even after accounting for increased rushing, has Newton at 228.0 passing yards.
• Washington is 30th in Pass Yards Allowed per game (279.3).

Full Picks Access

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