Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 8 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 8 upset picks as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on various data angles.

October 27, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 8 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

Jacksonville Jaguars (at Seattle Seahawks)

Point Spread: +3.0

Moneyline: +143

The Seattle Seahawks have averaged 16 first downs, 264 total yards, and 15 points per game in Geno Smith’s two starts. Those are ugly numbers for a team drawing the favorite role.

Jacksonville’s defense has struggled, but played relatively better recently. On offense, the Jaguars began focusing more on using James Robinson in Week 3, as well as having Trevor Lawrence use his running ability, and the results have been better as well.

Jacksonville ranks 5th in rush yards per carry on defense, but 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed.  The question is whether Seattle is the team that can take advantage, given that they have been very conservative so far with Smith. And probably for good reason, as Smith has shown poor pocket awareness and has been sacked five times in both games.

The Seattle defense has stepped up the last two weeks, but are still 31st in total yards allowed and 30th in rushing yards allowed. If Jacksonville can move the ball, it could force Smith to have to make some big plays to win.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Point Spread: +5.5

Moneyline: +205

New Orleans has played excellent defense again in 2021. The Saints lead the NFL in rush yards per attempt allowed (the Bucs are third) and this game is likely to come down to passing success. New Orleans is 3rd in points allowed per game this year.

Tom Brady and Bucs passing game versus Jameis Winston and the Saints seems like a mismatch, but this New Orleans defense frustrated Brady in all three games last year. (The Bucs broke through and won in the playoffs more due to former Saints QB Drew Brees’ struggles than the offense excelling.) In three games last year, New Orleans held Brady under 7.0 yards per attempt in each game, had five interceptions, and allowed only four touchdown passes.

This game will determine if the NFC South will have any semblance of drama this season, and while the Saints haven’t been flashy offensively, they still rank 6th in our predictive power ratings, no doubt flying under the radar of a lot of fans.

New Orleans is the second-best moneyline value according to our ensemble model forecast, sandwiched between much riskier long shots Houston and Miami. Our pick’em pool data also shows that 80% of the public is on Tampa Bay, so the Saints offer good contrarian value in spread-based pick’em pools.

Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta Falcons)

Point Spread: +3.0

Moneyline: +140

Atlanta has won three of their last four games, while Carolina has lost four straight after a 3-0 start. But how much of that is schedule-driven?

Our predictive power ratings have Carolina three points better than Atlanta on a neutral field. After losing handily to the two best teams they have faced in Weeks 1 and 2, Atlanta has gone 3-1 with a net point differential of +8, against:

• No. 25 New York Giants
• No. 24 Washington
• No. 31 New York Jets
• No. 28 Miami

Meanwhile, Carolina is coming off a terrible game in which they only scored three points at the Giants, and QB Sam Darnold was benched after playing poorly for several straight weeks. Carolina does have the best “strength” in this game, though, as their pass defense is a top five unit, having allowed only one of seven opponents to pass for more than 207 net yards.

Both our predictive power rating model and similar games model also favor Carolina as an upset play in this one.

Year-To-Date Results

Through five weeks, our highlighted upset picks are 6-9 both straight up and against the spread, and we are +2.2 units against the moneyline at time of publication. So far, all the picks that have covered have won outright.

Last week, Cincinnati won handily at Baltimore. Washington was the frustrating result, as the Football Team had more yards than Green Bay as a big underdog, but lost and failed to cover by getting zero points on three different red zone trips in the second half.

Just as importantly, in assessing luck versus value, we have shown closing line value with the Wednesday picks against the final pre-game moneyline.

Here’s a summary of the picks so far:

WEEK	PICK	WED ML	CLOSING ML	LINE VALUE	RESULT
7	PHI	+135	-105	Yes	Lost 33-22
7	CIN	+235	+230	Yes	Won 41-17
7	WAS	+323	+335	No	Lost 24-10
6	JAC	+157	+115	Yes	Won 23-20
6	NE	+165	+165	No	Lost 35-29 (OT)
6	DET	+155	+170	No	Lost 34-11
5	PHI	+157	+121	Yes	Won 21-18
5	NYJ	+145	+122	Yes	Lost 27-20
5	SF	+203	+200	Yes	Lost 17-10
4	SEA	+130	+123	Yes	Won 28-21
4	PIT	+251	+210	Yes	Lost 27-17
4	NYJ	+273	+211	Yes	Won 27-24 (OT)
3	CIN	+165	+125	Yes	Won 24-10
3	PHI	+165	+165	No	Lost 41-21
3	JAC	+290	+308	No	Lost 31-19

Based on the Wednesday lines, you would have needed a 35.0% win rate in these games to break even. Based on closing lines, you would have needed a higher 37.7% win rate. That’s a movement in the right direction.

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather potentially long losing streaks along the way, and you need to be especially careful about judging your handicapping process based on short-term results.

Week 8 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 8 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 7 Betting Recap