Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 9 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 9 upset picks as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on various data angles.

November 3, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 9 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

(We would have made the San Francisco 49ers an upset pick, but as of Wednesday, the 49ers are no longer the betting underdog in the matchup with Arizona.)

Houston Texans (at Miami Dolphins)

Point Spread: +6.5

Moneyline: +240

The angle here is largely a play on QB Tyrod Taylor’s status. Going by our predictive ratings, Miami is +5.7 points better than Houston, similar to the current line at Miami, and home field advantage has been very slight this year in NFL.

Houston’s predictive rating includes six and a half games with Mills at quarterback negatively influencing the numbers. In five of his six starts, the Texans have scored fewer than seven points entering the fourth quarter. The Patriots game was the only one where he played well, and in retrospect, that game now looks more like an outlier.

Last week, the line moved 1.5 points against Houston when Mills was declared the starter. We are taking a calculated chance here that Taylor will play and that will provide some value versus the current line, which is incorporating uncertainty. The upside of Taylor as starter improving the odds is greater than the downside if the Texans go from, say, a 6.5 to 7.5 or 8-point underdog.

With Tyrod Taylor, Houston beat Jacksonville in Week 1, and were tied with Cleveland going to halftime in Week 2. Without him, they’ve struggled to score.

It’s not guaranteed that Houston goes back to Taylor this week, but he was ruled out very late last week and is eligible to be activated off IR, so the chances are real enough to try to buy some line value here. He’s scheduled to practice and get some first team reps today. If more positive news comes out there, the line could adjust.

With Taylor, Houston’s chances of beating the 1-7 Dolphins rise, and they might have the better passing offense in the game with Taylor playing.

New York Giants (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Point Spread: +2.5

Moneyline: +125

The Giants were competitive against Kansas City, after beating the Panthers two weeks ago. They’ll get the Raiders coming off a bye week, but also a week with more notable off-field news. Wide receiver Henry Ruggs has been charged for a homicide while driving while impaired, and has been released by the team.

The Giants defense has played better recently, holding the last three opponents to an average of 302 total yards, and that includes games against both the Rams and Chiefs. Whether they can pull the upset will come down to the other side of the ball, and whether Daniel Jones can make the necessary plays against the Raiders.

Our ensemble forecast model has this as the highest money line value on the board in Week 9, and our Decision Tree model, Similar Games model, and Predictive Rating model all show value on the Giants.

Chicago Bears (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Point Spread: +6.5

Moneyline: +225

This one is driven by the Pittsburgh offense, or lack thereof. The Steelers are on a three-game winning streak to revive their season, but those wins have all been close, scrappy contests won by defensive effort. That’s great when you are in the underdog role, but relying on a poor offense isn’t as good when running as the favorite.

Pittsburgh is 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS over the last calendar year in the favorite role. That includes outright losses in five of the last six games when favored. You could chalk up that trend to small sample size, but it makes some logical sense given Ben Roethlisberger’s decline.

We now have about a year and a half of evidence that Big Ben is struggling to be an effective starting quarterback. The Steelers haven’t had 400 yards of offense in any game this year, and have been outgained in yards so far. That lack of explosiveness makes putting away games harder, against otherwise inferior opponents.

The Bears clearly have their own offensive issues, and have been the worst passing team in the NFL. But at least QB Justin Fields, at the opposite end of the age spectrum, has shown some signs of improvement the last two weeks. In last week’s loss to San Francisco, he showed more willingness to run, topping 100 yards for the first time in his career. Continuing to increase his dual-threat ability is the good recipe in an underdog role here.

Our spread predictions favor the Bears getting 6.5 points, and the ensemble forecast model also shows slight value on the Bears at the money line.

Year-To-Date Results

Through six weeks, our highlighted upset picks are 8-10 both straight up and against the spread, and we are +4.7 units against the moneyline at time of publication. So far, all the picks that have covered have won outright.

Last week, the Saints and Panthers both came up with underdog wins, while the Jaguars laid an egg in Seattle.

Just as importantly from a predictive standpoint, as close game luck can decide individual outcomes, 67% of our upset picks have shown better value at closing than the moneyline at the time of publication.

WEEK	PICK	WED ML	CLOSING ML	LINE VALUE	RESULT
8	CAR	140	117	Yes	Won 19-13
8	JAC	143	167	No	Lost 31-7
8	NO	205	165	Yes	Won 36-27
7	PHI	135	-105	Yes	Lost 33-22
7	CIN	235	230	Yes	Won 41-17
7	WAS	323	335	No	Lost 24-10
6	JAC	157	115	Yes	Won 23-20
6	NE	165	165	No	Lost 35-29 (OT)
6	DET	155	170	No	Lost 34-11
5	PHI	157	121	Yes	Won 21-18
5	NYJ	145	122	Yes	Lost 27-20
5	SF	203	200	Yes	Lost 17-10
4	SEA	130	123	Yes	Won 28-21
4	PIT	251	210	Yes	Lost 27-17
4	NYJ	273	211	Yes	Won 27-24 (OT)
3	CIN	165	125	Yes	Won 24-10
3	PHI	165	165	No	Lost 41-21
3	JAC	290	308	No	Lost 31-19

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather potentially long losing streaks along the way, and you need to be especially careful about judging your handicapping process based on short-term results.

Week 9 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 9 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 8 Betting Recap