BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 18 Sunday Picks
Picks for Sunday include some over/unders for Packers vs. Lions and Patriots vs. Dolphins, plus a Carson Wentz prop.
January 9, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
Aaron Rodgers looks to wrap up another MVP award today (Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
BetIQ Daily is here for the end of the 2021 NFL regular season with some Week 18 picks.
We already published our Week 18 upset picks on Wednesday, so let’s get to some other NFL picks for today.
1) Green Bay/Detroit Over 44.5 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
- This is the top playable Over/Under pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, with 56 percent cover odds according to our Decision Tree model.
- Aaron Rodgers is expected to start, and he’ll likely air it out for however long he’s in to add to his touchdown and yardage totals.
- Lions QB Jared Goff is also expected to play after missing the last two weeks.
2) Miami/New England Under 40.5 Points
- NFL Over/Under Pick
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
- One of seven playable Over/Under picks according to our models for Sunday.
- Four of five games between Dolphins and Patriots have gone under with former Bill Belichick assistant Brian Flores as head coach for Miami.
- Both teams have allowed under 20 points in six of their last eight games.
3) Carson Wentz Over 206.5 Passing Yards
- NFL Player Prop Pick
- Sunday vs. Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
- Our passing-yards model has Wentz at 239.7 based on spread, total, and Colts’ pass/run tendencies.
- Total is low enough that Wentz can go over even if Colts cover spread and are winning big late.
- Jacksonville allows 233.5 passing yards per game and ranks 27th in yards per attempt allowed, so Wentz can get to this number on efficiency.
- Our models also give a lean to Jacksonville covering the +15 spread.
Key Games To Watch For Playoff Purposes
There are a few playoff spots on the line today and plenty of specific seeding to be determined.
The following games will decide who gets into the playoffs (three spots remaining):
- San Francisco (+3.5) at LA Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX: 49ers are in with a win or tie.
- New Orleans (-3.5) at Atlanta, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX: Saints need to win and have 49ers lose to get in.
- Indianapolis (-15) at Jacksonville, 1 p.m. ET on CBS: Colts are in with a win (or Chargers+Steelers+Patriots losses).
- LA Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC: Winner is in, both could get in with a tie if Colts lose.
- Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET on CBS: Both teams are mathematically alive but need other outcomes, including a Colts loss.
Green Bay has clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but all other seeds remain up for grabs. Some bigger swing games today for seeding purposes:
- Tennessee gets the No. 1 seed in AFC with a win over Houston.
- Buffalo will win the AFC East with a win or a New England loss.
- The LA Rams will win the NFC West with a win or an Arizona loss.
Top Pick Performance Trends
Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.
As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:
- NFL point spread picks: 47-33-2 (59%, +9.7 units)
- College football over/under picks: 179-146-3 (55%, +16.7 units)
- NBA spread picks: 14-10 (58%, +2.7 units)
- NBA moneyline picks: 74-66 (+7.5 units)