Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 2

We go heavy on some passing-yards player props in NFL Week 2 and look for value on the ground in Indianapolis and Green Bay.

September 19, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Throughout the 2021 NFL season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We got off to a good start in Week 1, winning on seven of our 10 prop picks.

Our projections on the Patriots’ passing game were accurate. Rookie QB Mac Jones easily beat his 29.5 passing attempts prop by nearly 10, and he went well over in yards as well. We also won on the two Jonnu Smith overs.

We also nailed Pittsburgh being more run-balanced. That helped us hit the Najee Harris over on rushing attempts and Ben Roethlisberger under on passing yards.

Finally, we hit our “fun” +150 pick of Jameis Winston not to throw any picks, as the Saints cruised to a blowout win over the Packers.

We weren’t so fortunate with Brandon Aiyuk’s disappearing act. The 49ers jumped out to a big lead and he played limited snaps, so we lost two correlated bets there. We also missed on Aaron Jones’ receiving yards prop, as the Packers’ offense stunk.

Overall, we had a net gain of $82 on $191 risked, a solid Week 1 return.

Week 2 Player Props

We got off to a 2-0 start on QB passing-yard props, and we see a lot of value there this week as well. That may be a theme for us throughout the season. Yardage props are less reliant on one-play outcomes, and there are some potential market inefficiencies to exploit in certain matchups. (Washington QB Taylor Heinicke throwing an interception with the lead at the two-minute warning to go over the 0.5 interception prop on Thursday night is one example of how TDs and INTs can be more volatile.)

Picks for Week 2 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, but the best lines for the props we are targeting came from a combination of BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel this week.

Player	Team	Sportsbook	Category	O/U	Line	Odds	Bet
Matt Ryan	ATL	DraftKings	Passing Yards	UNDER	283.5	-115	23
Jared Goff	DET	BetMGM	Passing Yards	UNDER	255.5	-105	21
Mac Jones	NE	FanDuel	Passing Yards	OVER	240.5	-114	23
Trevor Lawrence	JAC	FanDuel	Passing Yards	UNDER	251.5	-114	23
Justin Herbert	LAC	BetMGM	Passing Yards	OVER	300.5	-125	25
Corey Davis	NYJ	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	UNDER	53.5	-115	23
Corey Davis	NYJ	DraftKings	Receptions	UNDER	4.5	-140	14
Jonathan Taylor	IND	BetMGM	Rushing Yards	OVER	60.5	-115	12
Jonathan Taylor	IND	BetMGM	Rushing Attempts	OVER	14.5	-115	12
AJ Dillon	GB	DraftKings	Rushing Attempts	OVER	7.5	-140	14
Mecole Hardman	KC	DraftKings	Touchdown	OVER	0.5	165	10

Let’s quickly cover the rationale behind some of these picks.

Matt Ryan and Jared Goff Under Passing Yards

The explanations here are somewhat related.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the bigger an underdog, the more they are going to pass. But teams that are bigger favorites tend to have superior pass defenses to their opponent and/or an offensive passing edge.

In addition, NFL games don’t always go according to script. Plenty of times, the big favorite may be barely ahead or trailing in the game before the better passing offense prevails in the end.

Passing yards are more correlated with expected points scored rather than spread. Over the last five years, QBs on similar double-digit underdogs had a median of 235 passing yards in these type of games.

In Week 1, the Lions trailed by double digits for most of the game before getting an onside kick recovery and fumble recovery to make it interesting. As a result, Jared Goff finished with 338 passing yards on 57 attempts. Meanwhile, Falcons QB Matt Ryan struggled in his first game with new head coach Arthur Smith and without star wideout Julio Jones.

We’ll take both to go under their respective passing-yard props as big underdogs with relatively low expected point totals this week.

Mac Jones Over Passing Yards

We thought the market was off on Jones in his first start, as we expected Patriots head coach Bill Belichick not to be conservative with the rookie QB.

It still isn’t quite high enough compared to our Patriots projections with Jones, so we’ll return to the over well this week.

Trevor Lawrence Under Passing Yards

The Jags fell behind quickly in Week 1, and Lawrence threw 51 passes and three interceptions.

We project a more conservative approach in Week 2, as they aren’t likely to be down by multiple scores all game again. (If they are, the over will probably hit again.)

Justin Herbert Over Passing Yards

This game has the highest point total (55) on the board so far this week. Herbert threw for 337 yards against a much tougher defensive opponent in Week 1.

The Cowboys will be without two defensive line starters and have concerns in the secondary. The Chargers should field a high-volume passing game and have plenty of chances to get chunks of yards here.

Jonathan Taylor Over Rushing Attempts and Rushing Yards

This number is far below our average season projection for Taylor.

The game script was strongly against Taylor in Week 1, as the Colts trailed for most of the game. He still finished with 59 rushing yards to go with 60 receiving yards.

We’ll take our chances here that Taylor is a big part of the Colts’ game plan this week. They’ll likely try to control the clock to keep the Rams from getting away from them like Seattle did in Week 1.

Corey Davis Under Receptions and Receiving Yards

This week’s receiving totals are right about on our average projections for Davis. But this one is all about Belichick.

Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson averaged 13.9 yards per target when throwing to Davis in Week 1 compared to only 5.6 yards per target when throwing to anyone else. Davis accounted for both of the Jets’ receiving touchdowns and nearly 40 percent of their passing yards.

Belichick is notorious for taking away opponents’ strengths and making them find other ways to beat his team. Going against a rookie quarterback in his second start, he’ll likely focus on preventing Davis from having a big game.

AJ Dillon Over Rushing Attempts

Dillon had two productive runs on the Packers’ second drive in Week 1, but then Rodgers took a sack, the drive ended, and the score got away quickly from them. Dillon should have more of a chance to shine Monday against the Detroit Lions, as the Packers are a large favorite.

After being forced to abandon the run so quickly last week, expect them to feature plenty of rushing attempts Monday. Detroit allowed a whopping 8.0 yards per play, including 4.7 yards per carry, last week.

Mecole Hardman to Score a TD

Put this one in the “fun” category for Sunday Night Football.

The Ravens had to blitz heavily last week against the Raiders, which allowed receivers Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones to break open. We’ll see if Chiefs wideout Mecole Hardman can hit a big play or a trick play while Baltimore’s defenses focuses on the duo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.