BetIQ Daily: Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Picks

Thursday's BetIQ Daily is back for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, with some highlighted picks for the next two days.

March 24, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Chet Holmgren will have a big height advantage against Arkansas (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

The NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16, with games starting back up tonight.

Our Staff Picks for the NCAA Tournament for subscribers have continued to produce, going 13-9 for +4.5 units (and hitting the Baylor to lose futures pick). Overall, since the start of March, the Staff Picks are 42-30 for +17.0 units.

To see all of our game picks, you need to be a betting subscriber.

Here, we’re providing two of our picks for games the next two nights of Sweet 16 action.

1) Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga) to Score 15 or More Points, -125

  • This player prop is available at release time at FanDuel, and you can find similar Over/Under lines at other books.
  • NCAA Tournament Game, Thursday at 7:09 p.m. ET in San Francisco, California on CBS.
  • Chet Holmgren has averaged 14.2 points per game this year.
  • He has scored in single digits three times over the last five games, but all three of those (Memphis, and twice vs. Saint Mary’s) were against strong defensive teams with size and depth on the front line.
  • Holmgren struggled from outside against those matchups, going 1-for-14 from three in the last five games, but he’s shooting 39.2 percent from deep for the year.
  • Arkansas’ starting lineup features 6’10” Jaylin Williams, but every other starter is 6’6″ or shorter. That creates a matchup advantage for the 7-foot Holmgren, as we presume Williams is more likely to guard Gonzaga forward Drew Timme.
  • Going against teams with below-average height at the 4, Holmgren has scored 15 or more points seven of 11 times (64 percent).

2) Kansas -7.5 (vs. Providence)

  • Best odds available at release time are at DraftKings -9.5 (-110).
  • NCAA Tournament Game, Friday at 7:29 p.m. ET in Chicago, Illinois on TBS.
  • This is a playable pick according to our team trends and matchup analysis, and right on the cutline of playable based on our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Kansas is getting healthy and better at the right time with the return of guard Remy Martin, who has now played more than 20 minutes in three straight games and has been highly efficient offensively.
  • Kansas had covered five straight until winning but not covering the 13-point line against Creighton. In that game, Kansas had its worst shooting performance from two-point range recently, and Creighton hit 12 three-pointers to cover for the fact that it shot 29 percent inside the arc.
  • This is not the type of matchup that has bothered Kansas this season, as Providence is a team of wings and penetrating guards, with little rim protection and average rebounding.
  • Kansas is only 3-7 ATS against the Top 40 offensive rebounding teams it has faced this year, but it’s 6-1 ATS against the teams most similar to Providence in offensive rebounding rate.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our college basketball spread picks listed in BetIQ Daily went 19-13 in the month of February, and staff picks are now 42-30 in March as well for +17.0 units. ATS college basketball picks rated as playable with 55.0% confidence are 19-9 ATS since the start of February.

As of post time, here are some other highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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