BetIQ Daily: 3 Thanksgiving Day Football Picks, 2 NFL Props and Week 12 Upset Picks

Picks for Thanksgiving Day include double-ups on Bills vs. Saints and Bears vs. Lions, plus we drop our three upset picks for NFL Week 12.

November 24, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, will get your Thanksgiving Day started (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Wednesday, November 24 (#5)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, college football rivalry week, and the rest of NFL Week 12.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free 1-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

5 Picks For Thanksgiving

1) Buffalo-New Orleans Over 45.0 — NFL Over/Under Pick

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
The highest-rated play for Week 12, according to our Decision Tree Model.
The Saints lost big to the Eagles last week, but New Orleans still ranks first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.
Meanwhile, New Orleans ranks 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed, so we expect Buffalo to use a higher-volume pass game.
The Bills still rank second in points per game for the season.
Four of the last six Saints games have had 52 or more total points scored after none of the first four games got above 48.

2) Buffalo -6.5 (at New Orleans) — NFL Spread Pick

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
Line has moved from opening of -4 to -6.5, so hitting/crossing key number of -7 would erode value here.
Despite poor performance last week, Bills are still our second-highest-rated team in predictive power ratings.
Buffalo, which ranks first in net yards per pass attempt allowed and second in interceptions, faces a Saints team that is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS since Trevor Siemian became the starting QB.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara missed practice again Tuesday, after missing the last two games, on a team devoid of playmakers right now.

Alternative Teaser Play:
Buffalo -0.5, Buffalo-New Orleans Over 39.0

3) Chicago-Detroit Under 41.5 – NFL Over/Under Pick

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET.
A playable over/under pick, according to our model predictions.
Detroit hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 1.
Detroit has passed for only 77 net yards in each of the last two games.
Detroit has only one passing TD over its last six games.
Chicago still ranks 32nd in net yards per pass attempt for the season, though we expect more passing volume with Andy Dalton at QB.

4) Andy Dalton Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-115) — NFL Player Prop

Bears are 32nd in passing yards, and Detroit has faced second-lowest volume of passes this year, leading to this low prop total.
We expect the Bears to pass more with Dalton at QB instead of rookie Justin Fields.
The Lions have faced low passing volume because they have trailed by a lot in the second halves of games.
In a closer matchup, we should see the Bears pass at higher rate than other Lions’ opponents.
Based on game spread and total, Dalton’s implied expected passing yards would be over 230.

5) Zack Moss Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — NFL Player Prop

Moss has gone below 20 rushing yards in three of his last four games.
His snap rate has dropped below 50 percent in each of the Bills’ last three games, including under 30 percent in two of them.
Matt Breida has had an increased role in last two games at running back, and he led Buffalo in attempts and yards last week.
The Saints defense allows only 3.4 yards per carry, while Moss averages 3.5 yards per carry.

Three NFL Week 12 Upset Picks

With our Week 11 Upset Picks including the big Houston win over Tennessee, we improved to +7.1 units against the moneyline (11-15-1) picking upsets this season.

(Remember that you can have a losing record and still make a nice profit betting underdogs at plus-money odds. A losing record is, in fact, expected with these picks.)

Here are our three “live dogs” for NFL Week 12:

1) Denver +130 (vs. LA Chargers) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 4:05 PM ET.
Denver is our top-rated money line value play for Week 12 according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
Denver ranks top 5 in first downs allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, and rushing touchdowns allowed this year.
Chargers are 2-4 ATS and 3-3 SU as a favorite in 2021.

2) Pittsburgh +179 (at Cincinnati) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET.
Our models do not rate this line as playable, so this is more of an “angles/trends” pick.
Pittsburgh is 15-5-1 ATS in Cincinnati since 2002, including 6-1 SU and ATS as a betting underdog.
Star LB T.J. Watt, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, and CB Joe Haden all missed Sunday’s loss, but they are expected to return to practice.
Last year, we wrote about how teams going for the home sweep in division rematches have underperformed expectations.
The Bengals won the first matchup 24-10 despite losing first downs (12 to 21) and yards (268 to 342).
Watt also missed that first matchup.

3) Indianapolis +142 (vs. Tampa Bay) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET.
Indianapolis is coming off a 26-point win in Buffalo and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.
The Colts have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six games.
Strength on strength: The Colts’ strong rushing attack, led by star RB Jonathan Taylor, goes against the Bucs’ stout front line.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 36-25-1 (59%, +7.8 units)
College football over/under picks: 153-124-3 (55%, +15.1 units)
College basketball over/under picks: 178-149-2 (54%, +12.8 units)
NBA spread picks: 11-6 (65%, +4.0 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page. (We’ve got a Thanksgiving Sale on now.)

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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