NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDSU CONN
Points 61.0 74.8
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 25.8
Points From Free Throws 14.9 15.6
Shooting SDSU CONN
Field Goals Made 20.5 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 57.5
Field Goal % 35.9% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 40.1% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 14.9 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.7
Free Throw % 73.7% 75.1%
Ball Control SDSU CONN
Rebounds 33.5 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 12.1
Turnovers 9.0 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.4
Steals 5.6 5.1
Fouls 15.5 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDSU CONN
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 70.4
% of Possessions with SDSU CONN
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 31.8%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.1%
Turnover 13.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDSU CONN
Shot Blocked 7.8% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 34.7%