NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CIN XAV
Points 78.2 70.4
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 46.5 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 18.9
Points From Free Throws 11.4 15.3
Shooting CIN XAV
Field Goals Made 30.0 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 65.8 60.9
Field Goal % 45.6% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 44.6 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 42.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 11.4 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 20.2
Free Throw % 68.9% 75.8%
Ball Control CIN XAV
Rebounds 41.7 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 9.8
Turnovers 9.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 6.4 2.9
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 14.5 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Cincinnati

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CIN XAV
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 72.1
% of Possessions with CIN XAV
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 21.3%
Player Fouled 18.0% 19.8%
Turnover 13.4% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CIN XAV
Shot Blocked 5.0% 9.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 25.5%