NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BAY TCU
Points 78.5 75.0
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 18.5
Points From Free Throws 17.8 14.7
Shooting BAY TCU
Field Goals Made 26.6 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 58.1
Field Goal % 49.6% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 17.8 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 20.3
Free Throw % 73.1% 72.7%
Ball Control BAY TCU
Rebounds 33.8 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.7
Turnovers 12.7 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.7
Steals 6.0 8.0
Fouls 15.5 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BAY TCU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 70.6
% of Possessions with BAY TCU
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 20.6%
Player Fouled 24.0% 21.6%
Turnover 17.6% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BAY TCU
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 28.6%