NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER ARK
Points 68.4 79.7
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 14.9
Points From Free Throws 13.7 24.3
Shooting MER ARK
Field Goals Made 24.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 52.1
Field Goal % 40.1% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 15.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 13.7 24.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 31.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 76.5%
Ball Control MER ARK
Rebounds 33.3 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.4
Turnovers 10.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.2
Steals 5.3 6.0
Fouls 21.4 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER ARK
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 71.3
% of Possessions with MER ARK
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 18.3%
Player Fouled 19.8% 29.3%
Turnover 14.3% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER ARK
Shot Blocked 10.2% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 26.9%