NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MER UNCW
Points 70.4 77.2
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 19.3
Points From Free Throws 10.8 19.1
Shooting MER UNCW
Field Goals Made 26.6 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 56.0
Field Goal % 46.2% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 10.8 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 24.6
Free Throw % 67.9% 77.5%
Ball Control MER UNCW
Rebounds 32.5 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 10.8
Turnovers 10.1 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.2
Steals 3.6 5.5
Fouls 17.7 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MER UNCW
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 71.0
% of Possessions with MER UNCW
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 25.2%
Player Fouled 19.2% 26.1%
Turnover 14.8% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MER UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 32.4%