NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NDSU UNM
Points 65.8 87.6
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 56.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 17.2
Points From Free Throws 12.5 14.0
Shooting NDSU UNM
Field Goals Made 23.3 33.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 63.3
Field Goal % 41.3% 53.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 47.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 12.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 19.4
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.3%
Ball Control NDSU UNM
Rebounds 29.5 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 10.1
Turnovers 13.3 6.7
Blocked Shots 1.4 7.0
Steals 3.1 7.7
Fouls 13.9 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NDSU UNM
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 75.3
% of Possessions with NDSU UNM
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 57.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 18.9%
Player Fouled 20.0% 19.4%
Turnover 18.4% 9.3%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 4.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NDSU UNM
Shot Blocked 11.1% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 30.9%