NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE OSU
Points 74.3 70.3
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 40.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 16.8
Points From Free Throws 13.7 13.1
Shooting DUKE OSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.1 57.4
Field Goal % 43.3% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 13.7 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 17.4
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.2%
Ball Control DUKE OSU
Rebounds 36.2 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.1
Turnovers 8.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.5
Steals 5.1 4.0
Fouls 15.3 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Ohio St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE OSU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 68.0
% of Possessions with DUKE OSU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 22.6%
Player Fouled 20.0% 22.4%
Turnover 11.8% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE OSU
Shot Blocked 9.8% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 26.7%