NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE LOU
Points 85.1 66.6
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 27.5 13.1
Points From Free Throws 16.8 14.2
Shooting DUKE LOU
Field Goals Made 29.6 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 54.7
Field Goal % 52.8% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 60.3% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 15.3
3 Point Shooting % 41.4% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 16.8 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 19.2
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.2%
Ball Control DUKE LOU
Rebounds 34.4 29.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 7.9
Turnovers 9.0 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.2
Steals 7.4 4.3
Fouls 16.1 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE LOU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 66.2
% of Possessions with DUKE LOU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 19.2%
Player Fouled 21.4% 23.0%
Turnover 12.9% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE LOU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 23.8%