NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE HOU
Points 64.0 71.9
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 25.6 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 19.2
Points From Free Throws 16.3 11.7
Shooting DUKE HOU
Field Goals Made 20.2 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 60.9
Field Goal % 38.8% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 12.8 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 16.3 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 16.4
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.1%
Ball Control DUKE HOU
Rebounds 34.8 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 12.4
Turnovers 11.5 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 6.8
Steals 4.3 6.9
Fouls 13.2 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE HOU
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 71.1
% of Possessions with DUKE HOU
2 Point Attempt 38.6% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 25.0%
Player Fouled 22.8% 20.0%
Turnover 17.4% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE HOU
Shot Blocked 11.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 33.9%