NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE CAL
Points 81.9 69.7
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 21.0
Points From Free Throws 15.9 11.7
Shooting DUKE CAL
Field Goals Made 28.6 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 60.6
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 15.9 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 15.9
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.2%
Ball Control DUKE CAL
Rebounds 37.9 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.4
Turnovers 7.8 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.6
Steals 5.5 4.4
Fouls 13.7 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE CAL
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 70.2
% of Possessions with DUKE CAL
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 27.6%
Player Fouled 20.1% 19.3%
Turnover 11.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE CAL
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 25.1%