NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE FSU
Points 80.7 70.5
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 13.8
Points From Free Throws 18.6 13.8
Shooting DUKE FSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 56.9
Field Goal % 47.2% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 18.6 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.0 19.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.5%
Ball Control DUKE FSU
Rebounds 38.0 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 21.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 8.6
Turnovers 11.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.4
Steals 5.5 6.7
Fouls 16.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Florida St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE FSU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 68.8
% of Possessions with DUKE FSU
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 51.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 19.5%
Player Fouled 22.8% 22.7%
Turnover 15.6% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE FSU
Shot Blocked 9.7% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 37.1% 25.2%