NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CREI VILL
Points 74.9 67.1
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 29.2 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 22.5
Points From Free Throws 9.8 7.3
Shooting CREI VILL
Field Goals Made 26.6 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 64.6
Field Goal % 45.4% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 25.1 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 33.4 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 9.8 7.3
Free Throws Attempted 12.2 9.1
Free Throw % 80.8% 79.7%
Ball Control CREI VILL
Rebounds 38.2 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.0 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 6.8
Turnovers 8.9 6.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.1
Steals 3.2 4.9
Fouls 9.2 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CREI VILL
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 69.2
% of Possessions with CREI VILL
2 Point Attempt 33.2% 54.5%
3 Point Attempt 44.2% 29.4%
Player Fouled 18.8% 13.5%
Turnover 13.0% 9.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CREI VILL
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.9% 17.6%