NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PUR MD
Points 73.5 61.6
Total Points   135.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 17.8
Points From Free Throws 17.8 10.9
Shooting PUR MD
Field Goals Made 24.9 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 60.1
Field Goal % 45.8% 37.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 26.5%
Free Throws Made 17.8 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 14.9
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.1%
Ball Control PUR MD
Rebounds 42.2 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.4
Turnovers 10.6 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.0
Steals 4.6 5.6
Fouls 13.0 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PUR MD
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 69.0
% of Possessions with PUR MD
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 28.3%
Player Fouled 27.0% 19.1%
Turnover 15.5% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PUR MD
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 23.9%