NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WMU TOL
Points 74.6 82.0
Total Points   156.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 45.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 19.7
Points From Free Throws 9.9 17.1
Shooting WMU TOL
Field Goals Made 28.4 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 59.9
Field Goal % 47.7% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 9.9 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 23.0
Free Throw % 61.5% 74.2%
Ball Control WMU TOL
Rebounds 36.0 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 9.6
Turnovers 13.2 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.3
Steals 4.2 7.2
Fouls 16.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WMU TOL
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 73.4
% of Possessions with WMU TOL
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 21.0%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.0%
Turnover 18.2% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WMU TOL
Shot Blocked 2.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 28.2%