NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GONZ PUR
Points 74.3 79.2
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 46.8 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 24.8
Points From Free Throws 8.7 15.6
Shooting GONZ PUR
Field Goals Made 29.7 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 60.7
Field Goal % 46.3% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 23.4 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 8.7 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 11.8 21.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 73.0%
Ball Control GONZ PUR
Rebounds 31.9 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.6
Turnovers 7.5 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.4
Steals 5.7 4.2
Fouls 16.4 11.0

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GONZ PUR
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 74.2
% of Possessions with GONZ PUR
2 Point Attempt 56.2% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 24.5%
Player Fouled 15.9% 23.7%
Turnover 10.7% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken GONZ PUR
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 37.5%