NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST ALA
Points 79.4 83.7
Total Points   163.1
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 31.8
Points From Free Throws 16.9 15.9
Shooting MSST ALA
Field Goals Made 27.9 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 61.8
Field Goal % 45.9% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 29.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 61.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 32.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 16.9 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 20.8
Free Throw % 65.5% 76.4%
Ball Control MSST ALA
Rebounds 36.8 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 11.5
Turnovers 11.1 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.2
Steals 8.1 6.3
Fouls 16.7 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST ALA
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 76.5 74.9
% of Possessions with MSST ALA
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 37.1%
Player Fouled 23.1% 22.2%
Turnover 14.7% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST ALA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 32.3%