NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM UCF
Points 71.4 76.8
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 26.5 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 20.2
Points From Free Throws 17.8 20.0
Shooting SAM UCF
Field Goals Made 22.3 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 56.2
Field Goal % 41.7% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 17.8 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 29.1
Free Throw % 70.7% 68.6%
Ball Control SAM UCF
Rebounds 31.0 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 13.5
Turnovers 14.5 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 6.0
Steals 7.0 9.2
Fouls 18.7 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM UCF
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 74.9
% of Possessions with SAM UCF
2 Point Attempt 34.8% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 23.0%
Player Fouled 25.3% 25.1%
Turnover 19.4% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 12.3% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM UCF
Shot Blocked 10.9% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 36.9%