NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SAM ULL
Points 78.5 75.8
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 19.7
Points From Free Throws 18.4 16.0
Shooting SAM ULL
Field Goals Made 26.6 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 59.9
Field Goal % 48.7% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 18.4 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.0 21.7
Free Throw % 70.7% 73.6%
Ball Control SAM ULL
Rebounds 34.1 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.7
Turnovers 14.4 13.5
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 8.1 8.4
Fouls 16.4 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Louisiana

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SAM ULL
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 73.8
% of Possessions with SAM ULL
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 24.8%
Player Fouled 24.8% 21.7%
Turnover 19.1% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SAM ULL
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 32.1%