NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF WMU
Points 69.6 75.7
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 24.8
Points From Free Throws 11.5 11.7
Shooting BUFF WMU
Field Goals Made 25.5 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 64.0
Field Goal % 41.9% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 11.5 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 19.0
Free Throw % 71.6% 61.5%
Ball Control BUFF WMU
Rebounds 34.8 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 15.2
Turnovers 11.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.8
Steals 6.0 5.1
Fouls 13.9 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF WMU
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 76.7
% of Possessions with BUFF WMU
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 26.8%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.3%
Turnover 15.3% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF WMU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 37.7%