NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUFF CMU
Points 64.7 70.9
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 19.9
Points From Free Throws 11.0 11.2
Shooting BUFF CMU
Field Goals Made 23.3 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 64.3
Field Goal % 37.7% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 26.0% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 11.0 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 16.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 67.1%
Ball Control BUFF CMU
Rebounds 38.9 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 12.6
Turnovers 10.8 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.8
Steals 5.0 5.7
Fouls 12.5 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUFF CMU
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 74.2
% of Possessions with BUFF CMU
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 25.2%
Player Fouled 16.7% 17.7%
Turnover 15.2% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUFF CMU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 31.3%