NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IW TXST
Points 63.8 76.8
Total Points   140.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.1 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 14.6
Points From Free Throws 16.1 18.7
Shooting IW TXST
Field Goals Made 20.9 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.5 57.1
Field Goal % 39.8% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 13.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 16.1 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 26.6
Free Throw % 71.7% 70.3%
Ball Control IW TXST
Rebounds 33.8 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 10.4
Turnovers 15.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.9
Steals 5.6 8.5
Fouls 17.3 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IW TXST
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 73.1
% of Possessions with IW TXST
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 51.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.4% 15.7%
Player Fouled 22.3% 23.7%
Turnover 21.3% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IW TXST
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 29.8%