NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU MSST
Points 67.3 80.2
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 14.6 23.4
Points From Free Throws 15.5 15.1
Shooting LOU MSST
Field Goals Made 23.5 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 55.2
Field Goal % 43.7% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.6% 62.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 26.6% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.5 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 23.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 65.5%
Ball Control LOU MSST
Rebounds 29.2 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 10.2
Turnovers 13.0 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.3
Steals 5.5 8.9
Fouls 16.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU MSST
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 69.9
% of Possessions with LOU MSST
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 26.7%
Player Fouled 23.2% 22.4%
Turnover 18.2% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 12.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU MSST
Shot Blocked 6.1% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 32.4%